EV trends to look out for in 2024

The arrival of electric vehicles represents the biggest disruption to the retail fuel market in a generation. But beyond gas stations, the shift in the diversity of locations that can become ‘refueling’ – or recharging – points is vast.

Looking to 2024, we’ve picked out just a few trends in the EV space that fuel and non-fuel retailers should be aware of as they plan their strategy to capture their share of the market.

Growth isn’t evenly distributed

EV adoption will continue to grow, but at varying rates. Whilst the likes of Norway are looking largely on track to reach their 2025 targets with VW and other automakers pledging to stop selling ICE next year, other markets such as the US may see a slight slowdown in adoption as Tesla stocks plunge and Ford pull back plans on EV expansion. This may be countered to some extent by the adoption of common charging standards, which give consumers greater confidence that compatible hardware will be available on the longest journeys.

There’s also variance in the types of vehicles and their journey towards electrification. Take Norway – since 2016 we have seen gasoline demand drop by 20%, aligned with shift towards EV fleet in the country. However, we have seen an increase in high flow diesel demand from buses and trucks. This is primarily because of the lack of traditional fuel alternatives for trucks and an increase in their demand. It reinforces the need to electrify across the fleet to meet legislative objectives. With the increase in EV truck offers coming to market and the potential for hydrogen, we expect this to change and for this to be a threat to high flow diesel demand, however it’s evident that there will be a lag between passenger and HGV EV adoption.

Gas volumes begin to be impacted

We’re likely to see the first signs of EV adoption impacting gasoline demand in the US in 2024. At Kalibrate, we’ve built a model that quantifies the extent to which gas volumes will be impacted by the growth of EVs on a site-by-site level. Reach out if you’d like to learn more or join our webinar to hear directly from our team.

More EV-first offers

We’ve seen the first EV-first offers in the past few years, but we expect to see an increase in locations dedicated to charging in 2024. With the likes of Electrify America opening its first gas station-like offers in California and outlining its vision for the future (human first offers with lounge style seating, convenience, and food service), gas-less stations are showing what a new breed of competitors will look like.

Affordability brings EVs into reach… for some

Whilst EVs are becoming more affordable, with Tesla recently slashing the price of their vehicles (partly to blame for Ford’s challenges), more people than ever can afford an EV. However, the gap between developed and emerging markets is still growing at pace.  A broader range of affordable models in the west means adoption will gather pace. Elsewhere, the picture is mixed.

Want to learn more? Watch our webinar on EV adoption strategies.