A (past) look at the future

Over the past few years, I have been asked to contribute to an Kalibrate blog on predictions – what changes do we anticipate over the next year? Because I am retiring at the end of the year, I was asked to do a different take on this. I started in the predictive analytics business in 1977 (almost 50 years ago) with a company called Howard L. Green & Associates – if we go back to the mid-70s – what were the predictions at that time, and how have they worked out?

(As an aside, one prediction that I found particularly amusing was a 1975 prediction made by Futuremics, a Washington, D.C.-based consulting firm, stating that the average retirement age would be 47 years by 2000. Apparently, I’m decades overdue!)

I approached this from two different perspectives:

“The Future File” – Paul Dickson is a non-fiction author who was written on a wide range of topics, from electronic warfare to baseball terminology. In 1975 he published a book called “The Future File”, which is a guide to futurism.

In addition to providing an overview of predictions and the organizations and individuals who make them, Dickson has assembled future predictions that were available in 1975. Apparently, futurists are more interested in predicting when humans can live to 150 or colonize Mars than activities so mundane as shopping. After reading the book cover to cover, I found no predictions pertaining to retailing. Somewhat disappointing, given the significance on consumer spending on goods and services, but there seemed to be more interest in future plots for science fiction movies than where I buy my groceries.

Long-Term Predictions – Artists seemed more interested in predictions than futurists. The following two drawings provide a perspective on the future of retailing:

Who had the foresight to envision DoorDash or UberEats 80 years ago? The biggest difference is that, rather than delivering ready-to-eat meals from a custom vehicle, most deliveries today are made by a 2008 Chevy Cobalt or similar car. (One has to appreciate the chef’s jacket on the cook).

This 1960s view of the future from USA Electric Light and Power Companies of America is surprisingly close to the mark. The housewife in the photo is shopping from the convenience of her own home, and interacting with a salesperson to make purchases without having to drive to a store. There are two primary differences between this view of the future and reality:

• Online shoppers interact with a website (and increasingly with AI) without having human intermediaries, and…
• Online shoppers today are likely still in their pajamas and don’t bother to get dressed up. However, the nearby coffee cup is spot-on.

By the 1980s, predictions concerning the future of shopping were a bit more on the mark.

Niel Ardley’s book “School, Work and Play (World of Tomorrow)”, published in 1981, gives a surprisingly accurate view of e-commerce, right down to automatic replenishment of weekly needs. The decision to highlight bananas being grabbed by a robotic arm is an interesting one – what are the odds that the machine knows to pick a ripe bunch of bananas and that none get crushed?

In the 2002 film “Minority Report”, Tom Cruise walks into a Gap store and is identified by having his iris scanned.

Personalized shopping is certainly an emerging area today, but has made bigger strides in e-commerce than brick and mortar shopping. Old-fashioned salespeople who know their customers remain an important element of successful stores and restaurants.

What does this all mean, Dave?

My biggest takeaway from this, and from prior predictions of the future, is that predicting is hard. Many predictions are no more than straight-lining – assessing past developments and assuming they will continue at the same pace into the future (which almost never happens). Many others regress toward the mean – economists are particularly good at this. Most projections of economic growth end up at  steady 3% – 4% annual GDP growth within a few years here in the US, despite the fact that annual economic growth is rarely that stable.

However, true predictions that anticipate revolutionary change that come true (think of science fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke’s prediction of geosynchronous satellite orbits to facilitate global telecommunication back in 1945) are rare pearls of wisdom.