Petroleum pricing in Canada — the Q2 2024 report

Canadian retail gasoline prices climbed early in the second quarter, boosted by higher crude prices, expanding margins, and rising taxes.

Although Canadian diesel margins contracted in the second quarter, like retail gasoline prices, retail diesel prices also increased, reaching a five-month high in April due to higher crude oil prices and taxes.

Crude oil prices climbed to a seven-month high in April before tapering off during the remainder of the second quarter. Geo-political tensions abroad, particularly in the Middle East, had the potential to affect crude oil production. As tensions intensified in April, crude oil prices were pressured higher. Although the conflict is still ongoing, tensions tapered during the latter part of the second quarter, allowing crude oil prices to decline. In early June, crude oil prices declined abruptly following the Organization of Petroleum Countries and Allies (OPEC+) announcement that voluntary crude oil production limits could be eased later this year. This led to worries that crude oil markets could be oversupplied. Crude oil prices regained some losses through the remainder of June as it became apparent OPEC+ would continue to monitor markets before any such limits were eased.

Canadian regional gasoline and diesel market overview

Compared to the end of the previous quarter, retail gasoline prices increased in most parts of the country in April before declining over the remainder of the second quarter.

Read the full regional overview alongside charts of gasoline and diesel price components by region here.

Canadian fuel market outlook

Looking ahead to the remainder of this year and the first half of 2025, retail gasoline prices will likely decline moderately until the end of this year before increasing during the first half of next year. In contrast, diesel prices are expected to climb until the end of this year before marginally declining at the start of next year.

Read the full Q2 report from Kalibrate Canada here