Kalibrate analyzed the Changes Over Time dataset from ChainXY to better understand how early-stage restaurant concepts are expanding across the US. Focusing on food service concepts with fewer than 20 locations at the beginning of 2025.
Coffee and Tea: The clear growth leader
Of the four categories, Coffee & Tea produced the most consistent expansion across the board. Hey Tea led all brands in this analysis with 28 net new locations, growing from just 7 to 35 units in a single year. The Alley added 11, while Clutch Coffee and Lucky Goat each added 8. What stands out is the depth of the category — all ten brands tracked posted positive net growth, and six of them added five or more locations.
This is not a story about one breakout concept. It is a category-wide trend. Coffee and tea brands benefit from a relatively simple operating model, high visit frequency, and broad consumer appeal. For emerging brands looking to scale quickly and efficiently, those fundamentals matter.
Quick serve restaurants: Chicken is king
The QSR/Fast Food category delivered some of the biggest individual growth numbers in this analysis. Smalls Sliders led the way with 20 net new locations, more than doubling from 17 to 37 units. Layne’s Chicken Fingers was close behind at 17, and Manchu Wok added 13. Urban Bird Hot Chicken rounded out the top tier with 10 net new units.
The chicken trend is hard to miss. Five of the eleven brands tracked in this category are chicken-forward concepts, and they account for the majority of the category’s net growth. The QSR model – speed, simplicity, and a tight menu – lends itself well to rapid expansion, and these brands are capitalizing on it.
Fast Casual: Deep and diverse
Fast Casual stood out for the sheer diversity of concepts posting strong numbers. Talkin Tacos led with 13 net new locations, followed by Uncle Sharkii Poke Bar at 12 and Hash Kitchen at 11 – a brand that went from a single location to 12 in one year. Angie’s Lobster added 10, doubling its footprint.
What makes this category notable is the range. Tacos, poke, lobster, hot chicken, Indian street food, udon – the brands scaling fastest in Fast Casual are not clustered around a single cuisine. This category reflects a consumer appetite for variety and quality at an accessible price point, and the brands delivering on that are being rewarded with growth.
Bakery and Desserts: A category punching above its weight
The Bakery and Desserts category delivered some of the strongest growth numbers in this analysis. Vicky Bakery led the way with 13 net new locations, nearly doubling from 16 to 29 units.
What stands out here is how clean the growth is. Nearly every brand in this category posted zero closures, meaning expansion is not being offset by underperforming locations. These are concepts that are growing deliberately and retaining what they open. Like Coffee & Tea, bakery and dessert brands benefit from smaller footprints and lower operational complexity.
Bars and Pubs: Growth at a different pace
This is not surprising. Bars and pubs carry higher operational complexity – larger footprints, more extensive menus, liquor licensing, and staffing requirements. These factors make rapid scaling more difficult, particularly for brands still in the early stages of growth. The data suggests that for this category, expansion is measured and deliberate by necessity.
What the data tells us
Across all five categories, a pattern emerges. The concepts scaling fastest are those that combine a focused menu with a repeatable operating model. Coffee and tea brands are leading on consistency, QSR chicken concepts are leading on speed of expansion, and Fast Casual is proving that diverse cuisines can scale when the format is right. Bakery and dessert brands are growing cleanly with minimal closures, while bars and pubs are expanding at a pace that reflects their operational reality.
ChainXY datasets are available in the Kalibrate Location Intelligence platform to see where restaurant and retail brands are adding locations so you can better understand co-tenancy and competition, market by market.
Speak with our team to see how this data can work for you.
